Amazon Prime Day got off to a stronger-than-expected start, with U.S. online shoppers spending $8.3 billion on the first day alone, a 5.3% increase from the same period last year and the biggest single day for U.S. e-commerce in 2026 so far. Adobe Analytics, which tracked the data, is holding firm on its $26.3 billion forecast for the full four-day event running June 23 through 26.
One of the biggest beneficiaries of that data was Affirm Holdings, whose stock jumped nearly 10% on the news. Affirm is embedded directly into Amazon’s checkout process, giving shoppers the option to split purchases over $50 into installments, making Prime Day a direct test of appetite for buy-now, pay-later financing.
The numbers tell a revealing story. Buy-now, pay-later is projected to account for $2.04 billion of Prime Day spending, a 5.5% increase from last year and roughly 7.8% of total sales. And that growth is happening against a backdrop of rising credit stress. Affirm reported that 30-day-plus delinquencies hit 2.8% in its most recent quarter, and its allowance for credit losses has climbed to 6% of loans held for investment.
The broader U.S. buy-now, pay-later market handled about $156.7 billion in credit in 2025 across players including Affirm, Afterpay, PayPal, and Klarna. Affirm’s own platform served 26.8 million active consumers and 515,000 merchants as of its last quarterly report, with gross merchandise volume up 35% year over year.
The Cardiff Connection
Consumers are spending, but they are doing so under real financial strain. According to Cardiff Founder, William Stern, the Prime Day buy-now, pay-later surge is not a sign of confident consumer spending. It is a sign that people need financing to cover purchases they would otherwise pay for outright.
For the small businesses Cardiff finances, that distinction is significant. When customers increasingly rely on installment credit to afford everyday purchases, it signals a tightening in the consumer base that ripples through business revenue and cash flow. Cardiff’s role is to help small business owners navigate that environment with the capital and financial stability they need to keep operating when their customers are stretched thin.
